The NFL currently includes eight teams with 3-1 or 4-0 records.
That group includes the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, the two preseason favorites for Super Bowl 57; the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers, third and fourth in futures odds per most books; and the Minnesota Vikings, on pace to hit the over on their 9.5-win total across a majority of books, but still in the top-third of futures odds to win the Super Bowl.
About the other three …
The Dallas Cowboys opened the season with a favorable 10.5-win over/under, but iffy Super Bowl odds at +2500 from BetMGM, Caesars and DraftKings. Dak Prescott’s Week 1 thumb injury completely flipped things for the Cowboys. Dallas dropped to the worst odds to win the NFC East at +600 and Caesars was among the books to lower the over-under wins projection to 6.5.
People are also reading…
PointsBet even moved to pay out tickets that had the Cowboys under 10.5 wins, according to The Action Network.
Bettors who bit on Dallas at 6.5 wins must be elated amid the Cowboys’ three-game winning streak. It continued with a 25-10 win in Week 4 over the divisional rival Washington Commanders.
The odds-defying run since Prescott’s absence has thus far been nearly matched by NFC East counterpart the New York Giants. The Giants improved to 3-1 with a 20-12 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday in a game that was a setback to the progress of the forward passing offense.
Even so, if you’re holding a ticket for New York over 7.5 wins, it may be premature to spike and dance just yet.
The next two weeks bring Green Bay and the Baltimore Ravens and the schedule isn’t all that kind from there, either.
The Miami Dolphins round out the 3-1 or 4-0 group, albeit coming off their first loss and with some looming uncertainty -- though not enough that it has impacted the Dolphins’ current 10.5 win total at FanDuel, up from a preseason consensus of 9.5.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s scary injury Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals and his long-term health take precedent, of course. Veteran Teddy Bridgewater will start in Week 5 against Miami’s AFC East foe the New York Jets, who at 2-2 are almost halfway to hitting the over on a dismal 5.5 over/under on wins preseason.
FrontPageBets takes a look at the past weekend in sports betting.
Books take hit
Week 4 wins piled up for the public in historic fashion, hitting sportsbooks where it hurts.
"Toughest NFL week for the sportsbook so far," said Jason Scott, BetMGM VP of Trading, of the just-wrapped week of the NFL regular season. "Chiefs beating the Bucs was the worst result on Sunday. Cardinals, Raiders and Cowboys were also bad outcomes for BetMGM."
Kansas City was +110 on the money line to win outright at kickoff at most books but offered at +130 earlier in the week.
It was the first week of the 2022 NFL or college football regular season that BetRivers and PlaySugarHouse lost money, senior manager Troy Mancir said. The sportsbook was left with "a -4.1.% hold of the money."
Among the big losses for BetRivers were six-figure payments on a preseason boost for the futures market on the Eagles starting the season 4-0.
Just one NFL team is perfect against the spread through four weeks: the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons’ 23-20 win Sunday over the 1.5-point favorite Cleveland Browns followed a Week 3 trend of home underdogs winning outright, while also keeping Atlanta’s perfect mark against the spread unblemished. With a preseason Over/Under win total of 4.5 per most sportsbooks, 2-2 Atlanta is well on pace to go over.
Big 12, big surprises
TCU’s 55-24 dismantling of Big 12 rival Oklahoma improved the undefeated Horned Frogs -- unbeaten overall and against the spread -- to +13.8 ATS on the season, per TeamRankings.com. That is the fourth-best mark in the nation.
Among the three teams ahead of TCU is fellow unbeaten Kansas, which outlasted -3.5 favorite across most books Iowa State in a 14-11 defensive struggle. The Jayhawks are now +15.3 ATS, second-best nationally. They opened as 6-point underdogs to TCU.
Kansas hasn’t played football like this since its Orange Bowl-winning campaign of 2007, and the Jayhawks are faring as well in Las Vegas, too.
The ‘07 Kansas team went 10-1 against the spread before losing its regular-season finale to rival Missouri as a 1.5-point favorite, per a November 2007 Los Angeles Times article.
On the other side of the Big 12, historical banner-carrier Oklahoma dropped to 2-3 on the season ATS with Saturday’s blowout loss, and at -6.9 overall ATS, has been worse than all but eight Power Five conference programs.
The New Orleans Saints and Vikings went over into overtime but New Orleans spread bettors still got to enjoy the sounds of the double-doink since the game went off at Minnesota -3.5.
Speaking of totals: The under has hit in almost 60% of NFL games this season, but the over had a comeback week with the Sunday late games including the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 46).